Brent crude tumbled nearly 12% on Monday to about $94 a barrel, but market strategist Sam Daodu warns that oil still needs to fall further—toward the $85–$80 range—before rallies in Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP can stick.
Daodu frames energy prices as the critical bridge between the Middle East conflict and crypto market direction. As long as oil stays elevated, inflationary pressure and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates will cap risk assets, he says—keeping a lid on sustained gains for crypto.
Where BTC and XRP stand now
- Bitcoin is trading just above the psychologically important $70,000 mark, down roughly 4% on the week after meeting resistance.
- XRP is consolidating around $1.44, off about 5% on the weekly chart and holding a roughly $1.35–$1.45 support band despite failed rallies.
Why oil matters for crypto
Daodu links recent crypto pullbacks to the same macro forces that pushed Brent above $100 following repeated escalation headlines since closures in the Strait of Hormuz began in late February. High oil prices feed inflation expectations and make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates—especially after its March 19 messaging pushed out hopes for easier policy. When rate-cut prospects recede, capital tends to rotate away from risk-on assets; crypto, still behaving like a high-risk class, is particularly vulnerable.
Crypto’s 24/7 market structure amplifies the effect. Because digital-asset markets never close, they react instantly to geopolitical shocks—often before traditional markets open—so weekend or overnight headlines can trigger sharper moves as thin liquidity concentrates selling.
What would change the picture
Daodu points to encouraging technical signs—Bitcoin has posted higher lows on successive sell-offs since late February, and XRP has shown resilience by maintaining its $1.35–$1.45 holding zone. The pivotal variable, he says, is oil: a retreat in Brent toward $80–$85 on signs of a ceasefire or diplomatic progress should ease inflation pressures, give the Fed room to consider rate cuts, and likely draw risk capital back into crypto—helping Bitcoin and XRP sustain rallies.
Conversely, if energy prices remain above $100, any positive crypto catalysts will likely be offset by the same inflation-and-rates dynamic that has dominated price action since February.
Bullish fundamentals still intact
Daodu also notes that several longer-term bullish catalysts remain in place, including the SEC moving toward classifying Bitcoin as a commodity, inflows into XRP exchange-traded funds, and progress on the CLARITY Act. Those positives, he says, are not gone—just sidelined until broader macro conditions, led by a drop in oil, allow risk assets to reassert themselves.
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