XRP’s recent calm has given traders some hope, but on-chain data suggests the rally may not have truly begun — and a deeper pullback could still be coming.
On-chain analyst Joao Wedson, posting on X, flagged the “Number of Days Spent At A Profit” metric as a warning sign. That indicator tracks how long current holders have been sitting in profitable positions by measuring days since the price was last higher. Wedson notes the metric historically peaks around major market turning points, yet today’s readings and XRP’s price remain well below those “hallmark” zones. He argues that this pattern implies XRP has not entered the early stages of a legitimate rebound and that further downside may be a necessary precursor to forming previous-style market bottoms.
Meanwhile, blockchain analytics firm Santiment reports meaningful on‑chain growth across the XRP Ledger — but it’s skewed toward smaller holders. “Shrimp” wallets (under 100 XRP) now number roughly 5.66 million addresses, signaling broad retail adoption. Mid-tier wallets holding 100–100,000 XRP have also expanded to about 2.01 million, suggesting accumulation by more committed participants. By contrast, large wallets (over 100,000 XRP) show only marginal growth and sit near 32,054 addresses, a sign that whales have been largely absent or engaged in redistribution rather than fresh accumulation.
The mix of rising retail and mid-tier participation with muted whale activity reinforces Wedson’s caution: without significant large-holder buying, a local bottom could still form at lower prices. At the time of writing, XRP trades around $1.44, down roughly 0.4% over the past 24 hours.
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